Ghosts of Councils Past, January 24, 2007

[posting]

GHOSTS OF COUNCILS PAST January 24, 2007



Jason here. Here is a test of your Canadianness. Did you watch Council last night or did you watch the Bush State of the Union? If the former you witnessed the ghosts of the past Council haunting the current one.

First the naming scenario. In the end Council decided to go with staff recommendation while asking to be brought up to date on the Frontenac’s agreement. This was significant. There was a clear majority of those who have decided that LVEC, like it or not, is a done deal and holding it up for any reason now will just add more to the ultimate bill. In spite of all the complements for staff work there is a clear undertone of suspicion of staff. This is mostly expressed as requests for more information. It would be a great misfortune if the suspicion continued. This Council, more than any before it, will be dependent on the work of staff. On the other hand, staff will adjust to the new Council by preparing more detailed reports. There is a lot of work being done between meetings by Councillors. They seem to be talking to each other and hopefully explaining their long-term objectives. Only in this is Councillor Garrison off side. It is not yet clear what his long-term objectives are. To be fair, he too has to adjust to a new standard as are Councillors Foster, and Smith.

The Community has been divided by the naming of Market square and all are anxious to avoid more problems of that nature. The rumour mill had Councillor Garrison making a motion to reopen the Market Square naming decision last night. Thankfully – to me at least – this divisive issue was not raised. Some ghosts should not reappear.

And then there was the real LVEC ghost. Councillor Glover presented a well researched and constructed (although very long) motion to try to get the new Council up to date on exactly what they were in for with LVEC by asking for a detailed cash flow analysis. I think the question here is “How much is this going to cost us and how do you arrive at those figures?’ Certainly this is a legitimate concern and one wonders why it has not been presented to Council already. Is it fair to guess that the new estimates will outstrip the old ones and that the flow of income will be less? But the shovel is in the ground and somehow we will all have to cope with that.

Jason has had little impact on Councillors who preface all statements with ‘I just…’ Let’s work on that.

[Lydia]

Wow what a NOVEL idea, Councilors actually asking for the REAL COSTS of anything that they agree to pass or not pass. I don't think Councilors are suspecious of staff. I think Councilors are getting more informed about what they will actually do. Yes, these councilors are actually speaking with staffers who have done their jobs well. However, this time around Councilors will not have their heads in the sand and pretend they don't know the real costs of projects. ABOUT BLOOD TIME AND THANK GOD FOR THESE COUNCILORS.

[Dogma]

Sorry, Jason your "perception" on the matters of council is rather comic.

I suppose it sells.

But infact the LVEC budget estimates have been issued twice -

Remembers its only been just over 2 months since the project was even passed!

How memory is so convienently short on such anidotial "reports".

Budgets updates or not, the complexitity of this construction job - building a large building as such - is over the heads of most people - let alone this new council.

I suspect to much information for most part would be a bad idea. It will lead to minimanaging something you know little about.

If any questions need to be understood, i.e foundation, superstructure or HVAC costs - please please put them in a context you know what you are talking about..

I do not want to hear...

I just want to ask why is the HVAC cost so high? And why do we need this one and not just a window air conditioner like I have at home????????????????

By the way - HVAC means...Heat, Ventilation, Air Conditioning.

I cross my fingers and pray.

[Lydia]

This Council, more than any before it, will be dependent on the work of staff. On the other hand, staff will adjust to the new Council by preparing more detailed reports

About time

Anyway, Dogma, you are totally correct when you say MOST people don't know the way the Construction Costs actually are calculated and determined.

It shouldn't be all that hard, As a troubleshooter who worked with the Accounting Department of Trow Engineering, I Do. Trow Engineering was a company who created several large projects throught Ontario the most famous one was the Sudbury Nickle Building. They also worked extensively with projects associated with the 401 etc.

Althought their costs spanned 3 to 5 year periods and were costed accordingly, these people could tell you the costs as long as there wasn't any union problems or delays along the way.

When it comes to the LVEC, a process called FORECASTING should have been made known and a detailed Cost Analysis should have been given. I am sure the Cost Analysis was done but I wonder if the Forecasting was. There should not be any reason for costs to NOT BE above the Forecasting figures.

[Dogma]

I appreciate your many years of bean accounting.

I understand Oracle has a very good "cost analysis" module. I have worked with many "costing" to estimate type of projects big to small.

But, they all are about the same in the area of keeping on "budget".

In fact; many small jobs end up costing (in percentage) much more of the margin for profit than the large ones. Because labour usually take their time...goes on twice as long.....because its a less daunting initative and less supervision involved.

BUT, so what. Neither senerio has little to do with the forecasting.

Forecasting like the word suggests is just that. Like a weather forecast.
- it is as conclusive as its incomplete, or "estimated" data, and along with ALL the non data related issues that come up with building a large "complicated" project.

That is why most large scale Canadian, Russian i.e dams etc. and other 60-80's projects have gone so horribly over budget
- NO MATTER WHAT bean counters programs or "forecasts" one has at its disposal.

Why -? Because there is never (at the end of a project) the same people incharge.
And the 100% guarranteed that the design will work on paper.
Investigation of the supply chain of either manpower or materials that will change in the market over an extended period

These are the main "forecasts" no one can predict. That is WHY they call it an "estimate".!

And in this case; as in many we already have evidence of . i.e steel prices, there is no exact forecast of the end cost. Can you tell me the cost of stell per Kg next month? Or the price or resin? (used in all plastic polymers) No , No one can!

And lastly; it is a done deal.

Who really cares or can stop or has the "political will to stop this project" now? Vicky? , you or any member of council?

Frankly; I do not care if the project goes 5-10% over budget. I have always said this. All projects of this "complexity" do. This is not a simple building. It is a multifunctional one. with custom work, foundations, retracting stages, modular lighting and seating, health and engineering issues, LEED design criteria and a PUBLIC ACCESSED building with its regulations, inspectors and design needs. This is not a concrete block in the middle of no where..were little "creative design" or thought comes into mind.. I cannot think of one building in the North that has a great creative and unique design for the public.

My problem is that no one else knows this here. Most think in terms of industrial mindeddesign, i.e Gas Stations or WalMarts.

And the same folks will make minimanagement decisions to save a few coins, and while screwing up the process so it slows down. You never ever , ever ever...........,(did I say ever?) want the project to slow. (And the City has said this many times!)

The momentum needs to keep flowing as a project schedule flow chart.

Any resistence (a week a month) will balloon in the end - to overtime rates and rush deliveries - which tends to led to mistakes (big ones) that through the budget losses out the window.

Please....Just mind your own business - and let the project management do their thing.

They will give reports - but hopefully not to detailed - (enough to clarify the overall status of the main budget "needy")

The best thing they could do is keep quiet and do their job to finish on time. The rest will be history!

Again - please let them do their jobs, and STOP asking to cover your afternoon cfee time with reports. It may be a ego satisfying (I told you so Don) But, frankly; its already a done deal, and give staff room to concentrate on the MANY projects - out there - not just your pet coffee time -conspiracy theory.

[Lydia]

Did I hit a nerve or what? lol lol.

I do happen to agree with you Dogma, that once a project has been given the green light that it should NEVER EVER EVER EVER stop.lol lol.

However, I still say that the end costs of the project will be more than the 5% to10% more. At least, that is what I honestly think. Why should i believer otherwise when most projects bloomed in costs.

[Dogma]

Lydia; you maybe right that the project may go higher than I am "forecasting".

But, frankly the naysayers will always convey a negative , pessimistic tone no matter what.

This project always has been a conspiracy - of greedy local business folk using the public purse to finance their next local "takeover" for their own benefit.

As they have with Market Square or Block D - anything to make money from. Especially with change - that has ever been seen in this tiny towns mind.

My main point is don't waist any time or money on grand reports. No one can on council or the public can or will ever fully digest it. Yes, there should be some independent auditor. But, council and the public? This only leds to mini managing something that most have little experience in. Some would also love to stoke the fires of suspision and I told you so's, i.e selling more papers or make themselves out as some sort of righteous know it alls, with little to loss but time on their hands!

[BornAndRaised]

If I were on council I would want to know the costs because the overall costs will have an impact on the cost to the taxpayer. Since Rosen was elected with the promise to build a new replacement for the memorial centre at no additional cost to the taxpayer, it is the elected responsibility of council to represent the voters of their district on this and all other matters of council. I would want to know the estimated cost so that it could go on record that I was for or against the costs.
There needs to be a system put in place that helps curb the cost overruns that seem to be more and more common with projects of all sizes. Maybe they could use the LVEC as the first project to monitor. With the overruns in the millions of dollars, even if a company was paid a million to audit and oversee these projects then the payback could pay for itself many times over.

[Lydia]

I agree gentlemen with both your statements. I know that as a taxpayer it is MY RIGHT to COMPLAINT. lol lol. I always will and it is HUMAN NATURE. lol lol.

Problem I find is that people complain about issues but NEVER offer solutions to solve the problems, Don't know ALL the facts and then jump to conclusions, etc.(which I have to admit I have done)lol lol. This of course does upset people like Dogma and I have to admit it would upset me as well.

For this reason, I am total in favour of transparency in all issues. Financially, I believe that a City Staffers, do have a more grounded understanding of what projects should cost or COULD cost if something unforeseen happens. I believe Gerrad Hunt is an excellent staffer and I do trust what he says. I might not agree with him all the time but I do trust him.

I just feel that people get upset when their housework isn't cleaned up. Likewise people get upset when their infrastructures are not cleaned up or up to par. So when big projects are undertaken BEFORE the (housework/Intrastructures) they get upset, the city gets divided.

I don't believe that Harvey Rosen's projects were incorrect for development. I just think that the priorities of what this city needs are MORE important. So you have a catch twenty-two situation. Your damned if you do and your are damned if you don't.

Hopefully, with this new council, we will take a serious look at what the PEOPLE really NEED versus what PEOPLE MAY WANT. If this council does this than they will be on council for the NEXT 4 YEARS AFTER THESE 4 YEARS.

Can you imagine, a group of councilors who everyone has respect for and who represent all members of our society.

I am an optimist,I believe that business and customers CAN work together for the betterment of my society. So can the City and Taxpayers.

[Dogma]

Maybe they could use the LVEC as the first project to monitor. With the overruns in the millions of dollars, even if a company was paid a million to audit and oversee these projects then the payback could pay for itself many times over.


We have Gerrad Hunt, and a project mamager involved in the overall budgeting of the project. They and they alone will convey/updated costings on the project. In fact; this has already been done, with council LVEC budget discussions upon the direct request from Mayor Rosen.

In addition; City budget for 2007, taxation verse service agency requests and review are also just on there way. This council will be undertaking a much larger task over the next month, with financial presentations and debate on budgeting for all City services. Does one really think they want and have the time to baby sit the LVEC project?

Infact; I would suggest a review of the costing in the spring, when infact the building has been 1/3 completed, then 4 months later..then only in the final 4 months. Indeed; there will be some un-forecasted expenditures. But, this can be mitigated by the latter schedule without mini managing the building process.

Remember every change or addition to this project must go through the The City, Enviromental, Planning, MOT and through council to approve!

And the simpilist change can stop major work sections of the project.


I do not want to hear...


I just want to ask why is the HVAC cost so high? And why do we need this one and not just a window air conditioner like I have at home????????????????

Again -
I cross my fingers and pray the "public or council debate" does not screw up (your) tax payers project budgets,
and thus led to higher rates.

(And I can hear it now from the naysayers...its the LVEC's flawed conception from the beginning that's at fault for the budget overruns)

__________________

[Lydia]

LOL LOL LOL. I GUARANTEE YOU WILL HEAR IT LMAOOOOOOOOO

All kidding aside, I agree. lol lol

[Dogma]

For those who wish to follow the Construction Project each month:

http://www.cityofkingston.ca/residents/recreation/arenas/lvec/newsletter/index.asp

[Lydia]

Hay Dogma, Is that moving spot that looks like a person walking around there YOU?? LMAO

Actually Dogma, Not a bad webcame of the site. I think that is actually a good webcam. Not like the one of the front part of City Hall trying to show that there is a Ice Rink in the back.

Did you take the webcam of the front of City Hall away? I thought it would be great to watch which councilors or staff actually go there to work. Lol

Just to let you know my family members in Nova Scotia actually take a look at the webcam to check out the weather conditions here.

[Dogma]

Hey Lydia;

It the monthly newsletter which updates Kingstonians on the "current progress" of the LVEC project, that maybe helpful to some.

Monthly status reports on the construction and its schedule is another way to fully understand the LVEC, other than just balance sheets, or income statements.

:)